Consumer Login
Email Alerts
Kathleen Nolan
Blog | Subscribe
 
Month:     Category:    Text:   
 
 
 

Have We Reached Bottom? 10 Factors to Consider

Posted By susanne On June 23, 2009 @ 3:43 pm In Home Buying 101, Real Estate, Today's Top

Story, Today's Top Story - Consumer | Comments Disabled

[1]RISMEDIA, June 24, 2009-Historically, the

value of real estate goes through cycles. Many factors affect the value of homes including the

laws of “supply and demand.” From the Appraisal Institute, here’s a quick reference guide to

some of the factors involved and advice on how to spot a turning point in the market:

1. A spike in local sales activity. A spike refers to a significant rise in the number of

home sales (or values) in a local market area, which generally is measured month to

month. A spike does not necessarily mean continued growth, i.e. it could be a one

month phenomenon.

2. Higher asking and selling prices vs. appraisal value opinions for residential

properties. Appraisers study the markets; they do not make the markets. When the

data shows higher sale prices in comparable properties market value opinions will

increase proportionally. Appraisers seek evidence of value but do not create the value.

In time periods with low activity, evidence of any kind is difficult to find.

3. More activity at open houses. Open houses with five to eight attendees is

considered average, so a dozen or more people attending an open house means buyer

interest is picking up. Also, the mood of the attendees is important. Are they optimist

and upbeat? Buyers interest alone does not always translate to effective purchasing

power. If the number of buyers in the market increases but they do not have requisite

down payments, the sales may still not occur.

4. Shorter marketing times. In some markets, houses have been up for sale for more

than a year. In most balanced residential markets, properties that are priced

competitively will typically sell in less than six months. If the Days On Market (DOM) is

shortening, many practitioners will read an improvement in the market.

5. Reduced number of foreclosures and short sales. A reduction in these

transactions commonly signals a more balanced market. If lenders are reluctant to

foreclose because of an oversupply of inventory, they may choose to wait to repossess

the properties, which could allow a spike in the number of foreclosures later despite a

better market condition.

6. Stabilized employment. Stable or increasing employment rates provide the

necessary confidence for potential buyers to invest in a home. Since most buyers rely on

borrowed funds to make real estate purchases and borrowing money usually requires a

source of repayment and that usually means jobs, an increase in this basic need, will

enable more real estate sales.

7. Fewer buyer incentives and seller concessions. Seller-paid incentives or

concessions are a sign of seller motivation. If there are fewer builders offering “free”

upgrades and fewer sellers sweetening the deal with big screen TVs, it may be a sign of

lessening supply and therefore a better market.

8. New construction starts. Most builders are quite attune to their markets and will

not build new homes without a corresponding contract for sale or a perceived increase in

demand. An increase in the number of building permits usually indicates higher demand

and higher prices. If residential properties are selling for 25% less than they cost to

build, only a few new homes will be built. It would be prudent to buy an existing home

rather than build a new one for a much higher price.

9. “Move-up” buyers entering the market. More buyers willing to move to a larger

or superior quality home indicates a healthy market. The lack of buyers at the lower end

of the price range will have a chain reaction throughout the market. If a buyer for a high

priced home has a lower priced home to sell first, the sale of the higher priced home

may have to occur before the higher priced one can sell.

10. Apartments advertising renter specials - fewer renters in the market may

indicate more people are moving into owner occupied homes or it could indicate a

reduction in population. Lower population will cause an oversupply of housing which will

oftentimes permeate throughout several markets.

For more information, visit www.appraisalinstitute.org [2].

RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to:

realestatemagazinefeedback@rismedia.com

 
Posted in Denver Home Prices.
Top
 
 
 

Top cities for new grads

While many new grads tend to look for jobs near their college or hometowns, scores of them are considering locations they might not have when they entered school four or five years ago.

"Given the current economy, new grads looking to relocate are becoming increasingly concerned with the cost of living as they are faced with more competition for jobs than seen in previous years," said Tammy Kotula, public relations and promotions manager at Apartments.com. "With these very real concerns weighing on the minds of many, two leading online resources for apartments and jobs have come together to paint a realistic landscape of both the job market and cost of living in the most popular cities for young adults after college."

For new grads who plan to expand their job searches beyond their college or hometowns, Apartments.com and CBcampus.com just released the "Top 10 Best Cities for Recent College Graduates." The list is based on the ranking of the top U.S. cities with the highest concentration of young adults (age 20 - 24) from the U.S. Census Bureau (2006), inventory of jobs requiring less than one year of experience from CBcampus.com (2009) and the average cost of rent for a one bedroom apartment from Apartments.com (2009).

According to Apartments.com and CBcampus.com, the top 10 cities for new grads are: 

1.  Indianapolis
Average rent:*
$625

Popular entry-level categories:** sales, customer service, health care

2.  Philadelphia               
Average rent: $1,034
Popular entry-level categories:
sales, customer service, management

3.  Baltimore     
Average rent: $1,130
Popular entry-level categories:
sales, customer service, health care

4.  Cincinnati     
Average rent:
$691
Popular entry-level categories:
sales, customer service, health care

5.  Cleveland
Average rent: $686

Popular entry-level categories: sales, marketing, customer service

6.  New York     
Average rent: $1,548
Popular entry-level categories:
sales, customer service, admin-clerical

7.  Phoenix        
Average rent: $747
Popular entry-level categories:
sales, customer service, marketing

8.  Denver          
Average rent: $877
Popular entry-level categories:
sales, customer service, health care

9.  Chicago         
Average rent: $1,133
Popular entry-level categories:
sales, marketing, customer service

10.  San Antonio              
Average rent: $696
Popular entry-level categories:
sales, customer service, management

Looking beyond your hometown

If you are considering expanding your job search to other cities, here are some tips:


  • Contact an alumnus from your college who lives in that city and join your alumni chapter if there is one.
  • Get an insider's perspective by familiarizing yourself with the local media and other resources. Read up on the city's business and community news.
  • Develop a list of companies within the area and learn about their businesses and company cultures.
  • Register with a national recruitment agency; interview with a recruiter in your local office and have that person put the word out to other offices in your target cities.
  • Consider spending a few days in your desired city to learn more, network and set up informational interviews. In your applications and cover letters, tell hiring managers the dates you'll be in the city and available to interview.

Although this is a challenging market for new grads, remember: Attitude can be the key to your success. The reality is that the job search will take longer for these new grads thrust into the "real world" but the right mind-set can make you resilient.

Consider the words from Elaine Goodwin, who plans to graduate this fall from Northern Illinois University: "There is always something. I love the Japanese proverb that says 'Fall down seven, get up eight.' I understand that it is going to be a tough economy to graduate in, but I will take the challenge and show companies how I can be an asset to them. You can't get discouraged because the world is not going to give you a break."


*Average rent of one bedroom apartment

**Using search term "entry level" in that city

 
Posted in Denver Job Market.
Top
 
 
 

Weighing in on property valuations

Property assessments are in the mail, so here's how the system works
Updated: 05/02/2009 10:39:35 AM MDT

Some homeowners may want to shout "Mayday!" when assessor property valuations arrive this week, but experts say to take a moment to evaluate them properly.

Statewide, except Archuleta County, assessors mailed property valuation notices Friday, something they all do every two years.

Although sophisticated computer models are used to value properties, not everyone will be pleased.

Owners of 5.5 percent of the 2.3 million properties in Colorado filed protests in 2007, a 30 percent jump from 2005.

Even more protests are expected this year.

"There is no ability in the state of Colorado to protest your property taxes," said JoAnn Groff, property tax administrator at the Colorado Division of Property Taxation. "What you have the opportunity to do is protest your value."

Archuleta County's valuations will be mailed a month late, the result of computer problems, officials said.

Below are a few things property owners need to know.

Facts easier to fix than judgment

Valuation notices detail how property owners can file a protest by the June 1 deadline. They can be made by mail or phone, and in some counties via fax, by e-mail or online.

It's easy to challenge factual errors such as a property's square footage, the number of rooms, or a supposedly finished basement that isn't.

More challenging is contesting the value assessors have placed on a home, especially in a volatile real estate market.

One of the most common mistakes people make in disputing valuations is to compare recent sales or appraisals with their property, Groff said.

Assessors review sales over an 18-month period that ended June 30, 2008. Information after that can't be in the appeal.

Finding comps can be trickyAssessments from some of the largest counties are provided online with information used to calculate a property's value. Other assessors will explain what is behind their calculations over the phone.

One of the key tasks in a protest is using good comparable home-sales numbers. Online real estate sites have current sales figures to calculate valuation and aren't very useful.

However, some local real estate agents will provide sales figures from last summer, if only to earn your goodwill.

A new website, PropertyTaxSlash.com, offers Colorado homeowners a free valuation analysis. Mark Linne, an appraiser who helped the state resolve property tax disputes for more than six years, created the site after becoming frustrated helping with a neighbor's appeal.

PropertyTaxSlash charges $49.95 to those who want to lodge a protest with the website's help. At the very least, it offers a second opinion on your assessment.

With protests expected to surge, a weak case based on the wrong comparable sales data can lead to a quick dismissal, Linne said.

"It is a jungle out there," he said. "Most consumers don't have a clue on the rules governing assessments."

Take a deep breath before protesting

Assessors have discretion in throwing out the low and high range of comparable sales, sort of how Olympic judges toss the highest and lowest scores.

In Denver, home values declined 3.2 percent between the June 2005 valuations and June 2007, according to assessor Paul Jacobs. In some neighborhoods, such as Highland and Country Club, valuations have increased by more than 10 percent. And they've fallen by 30 percent in areas such as Montbello and Green Valley Ranch.

Property owners should let their emotions settle and take a second look at their valuation before acting, Jacobs said.

"Think it through," he said. "Is it that out of line with what happened back in June," before the financial meltdown accelerated and caused another downward surge in values?

Seniors should pay close attention to valuations since a break they previously got on a property's first $20,000 in value is set to go away. Their window to protest could be long gone if they wait too long, Linne warned.

 
Posted in Denver Home Prices.
Top
 
 
 

U.S. home prices fell at a record pace late last year, but Denver fared much better than other metro areas, according to two home price indices released Tuesday.

Metro Denver home prices fell 4 percent in December compared with the same month a year ago, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

Denver's decline was the smallest of the 20 major metro areas tracked in the index, which fell a record 18.5 percent between December 2007 and December 2008.

"We have been dying from a thousand cuts since 2001 when our foreclosures started going up and the rest of the country was booming," said Mike Rinner, an executive vice president with the Genesis Group, a local real estate marketing firm.

Years of modest price appreciation now look like a blessing in disguise that has shielded the metro area from the 30 percent-plus annual declines measured in Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Francisco, Rinner said.

Because Denver's housing market turned south early, the inflated mortgages made in other markets when home prices peaked in 2005 and 2006 are not as much of a problem here, said Michael Kone, an economist with Housingmetrics in Boulder.

But he cautioned that a softening economy could continue to put downward pressure on prices. "December over December did look better, but I noticed that things locally started to slip again in January," he said.

A more conservative and broader index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency registered a 4.5 percent annual decline nationally in the fourth quarter, the largest recorded drop since the index started in 1975.

Denver-Aurora-Broomfield ranked 111 out of 292 cities with a 0.71 percent annual decline in its home price index in the fourth quarter.

No. 1 in the rankings was Decatur, Ala., with a 6.6 percent gain, and No. 292 was Merced, Calif., with a 49.5 percent annual drop in home prices.

Boulder ranked 17th, Grand Junction 77th, Fort Collins 91st, Pueblo 99th, Colorado Springs 146th, and Greeley 224th on the FHFA index.

Price appreciation in the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield market over the past five years was 6.34 percent.

Above-average population growth and stability in jobs also appear to have supported metro Denver's housing market last year.

Detroit, like Denver, didn't see a run-up in home prices earlier this decade, and it still suffered a 21.7 percent annual decline in December, from a year earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Colorado's population is growing at nearly double the national rate, and job losses in December were one-third the national rate, according to a report from George Antoine, Denver regional economist with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

A report from the Colorado Division of Housing Monday showed that the number of foreclosure filings declined 14 percent in the fourth quarter, while foreclosure sales fell 20 percent.

Aldo Svaldi: 303-954-1410 or asvaldi@denverpost.com

 

 
Posted in Denver Home Prices.
Top
 
 
Kathleen Nolan
Nolan Real Estate LLC
107 South Public Road
Lafayette, CO 80026
Office: 303-665-5525
Direct: 303-523-6456
Mobile: 303-523-6456
Fax: 303-661-0771
Contact Kathleen Nolan
Virtual Office